Toshiba pushes forward with it's 3D televisions that do not require glasses. Sales of the TV start in Japan this week. Toshiba plans for global launch of these televisions 40" and over next year.
More details are expected to be announced at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas in January of 2011.
Quality of the 3D experience has been a large concern for many, and they have stayed away from Autostereoscopic TV development. Instead they have continued forward with the sets that require glasses.
Personally I see this as the debate between watching 3DTV all the time or not. If I was expecting to be able to watch everything and WANT to watch everything in 3D I would not want to have to wear glasses. As with the current movie experience, there is no issue with wearing glasses for a limited time to experience high quality 3D. I believe 3D is a feature, not an all time viewing experience.
Toshiba is taking the line that the world will shift to watching 3D more often than not, and will not want to wear glasses and do not expect to. They feel this will put the Japanese companies back in front on the technology curve. This is an advantage they feel they have lost to the South Korean TV manufacturers such as LG Electronics Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co.
The illusion of depth without special glasses is very hard to achieve. Viewing angles are the problem, there are only a limited number without glasses. Step outside of those zones and the image will be fuzzy or blurred, and a very bad viewing experience. Most believe the technology hurdles in the way for glasses free 3DTV will be in the way for 5 to 10 years.
As a side note, Toshiba has pushed out their Google TV. They will introduce sometime next year, but did not explain any of the reasons for the delay. Google Inc. has also pulled the plug on their plans to show at the Consumer Electronics Show this year. Numerous reports have been coming out about the IPTV and the challenges with using the product.
I have posted previously about the challenges of 3DTV and IPTV. Numerous challenges remain to have these features become user friendly.
JZ!
Friday, December 24, 2010
3DTV sales not jumping out of the TV Screen
A year ago the industry would have jumped up and down and hailed 3DTV as the savior of step up television sales.
Now as with most technology being pushed on customers, price cutting is the latest attempt to achieve sales that simply have not happened based on customer demand.
Lack of movies, content to watch, and pricing that adds up quickly with TV, glasses, 3D blu-ray, have had customers saying "No Thanks".
3DTV is still expected to be one of the hot topics at this years Consumer Electronics Show which is just around the corner in Las Vegas.
Flat Panels in general have seen aggressive price drops from many years. This year has been a year in which shoppers have not seen 30-40% prices drops. Inventory on LED backlit and IPTV as well as 3DTV have been slow movers. All had high expectations from the vendors. Bundle promotions and other activity have not been as affective in moving the goods as everyone has hoped. Now with new models shipping next March, the need to move the inventory is rising.
Discounts have been seen from 16% to as high as 52% off, but the TV is still going to cost you over $1,600. On average 3DTV is in a set with other expensive features and these sets are still $2,500 to $3,000.
This is in comparison to value TVs of the same size at $1000 or less.
Until 3DTV has meaningful content to watch, and the industry figures out how to explain to consumers so there is no confusion, the uptick will be slow on sales. People want it, they are paying for it everyday in the movie theater. This will convert to the home, but a better job needs to be done with explaining it properly.
It is a feature, not a TV type. It is not a way to watch TV 24/7 or intended to be.
We all up sized our TVs to as big a set as we could to bring the movie like experience home. We did not do it originally with the intent to watch everything all the time in a Home Theater type of environment. Even now home audio sales continue to struggle, and people are buying big screens, but not a complete Home Theater.
3DTV needs to be clearly shown for the entertainment value it will provide while watching Movies / Sports / Concerts / Discovery events.
Hopefully the industry doesn't devalue the feature in it's attempt to get back on track with inventory.
Not everyone needs 3DTV, not everyone needed at 65" Projection Television. Those that did want/need it paid for the technology and enjoyed the benefits they provided to them.
Blu-Ray movies should not be in the $1.99 bin, 3D Blu-Ray should not be at Blu-Ray prices, just as 3D movies, IMAX movies cost more than a regular movie experience. Those that see value and appreciate the entertainment experience will pay for it.
Industry should not expect to push the curve and hit the masses overnight and profit from it.
JZ!
Now as with most technology being pushed on customers, price cutting is the latest attempt to achieve sales that simply have not happened based on customer demand.
Lack of movies, content to watch, and pricing that adds up quickly with TV, glasses, 3D blu-ray, have had customers saying "No Thanks".
3DTV is still expected to be one of the hot topics at this years Consumer Electronics Show which is just around the corner in Las Vegas.
Flat Panels in general have seen aggressive price drops from many years. This year has been a year in which shoppers have not seen 30-40% prices drops. Inventory on LED backlit and IPTV as well as 3DTV have been slow movers. All had high expectations from the vendors. Bundle promotions and other activity have not been as affective in moving the goods as everyone has hoped. Now with new models shipping next March, the need to move the inventory is rising.
Discounts have been seen from 16% to as high as 52% off, but the TV is still going to cost you over $1,600. On average 3DTV is in a set with other expensive features and these sets are still $2,500 to $3,000.
This is in comparison to value TVs of the same size at $1000 or less.
Until 3DTV has meaningful content to watch, and the industry figures out how to explain to consumers so there is no confusion, the uptick will be slow on sales. People want it, they are paying for it everyday in the movie theater. This will convert to the home, but a better job needs to be done with explaining it properly.
It is a feature, not a TV type. It is not a way to watch TV 24/7 or intended to be.
We all up sized our TVs to as big a set as we could to bring the movie like experience home. We did not do it originally with the intent to watch everything all the time in a Home Theater type of environment. Even now home audio sales continue to struggle, and people are buying big screens, but not a complete Home Theater.
3DTV needs to be clearly shown for the entertainment value it will provide while watching Movies / Sports / Concerts / Discovery events.
Hopefully the industry doesn't devalue the feature in it's attempt to get back on track with inventory.
Not everyone needs 3DTV, not everyone needed at 65" Projection Television. Those that did want/need it paid for the technology and enjoyed the benefits they provided to them.
Blu-Ray movies should not be in the $1.99 bin, 3D Blu-Ray should not be at Blu-Ray prices, just as 3D movies, IMAX movies cost more than a regular movie experience. Those that see value and appreciate the entertainment experience will pay for it.
Industry should not expect to push the curve and hit the masses overnight and profit from it.
JZ!
UCONN Women Longest College Basketball Streak
UCONN Huskies broke the UCLA men's team's record of 88 wins with their 93-62 win over Florida State. This game as with many others had the big lead, loud and proud crowd, and a large lead held until the end.
It was reported during the final minutes that the crowd chanted "89!", and now they have the most consecutive wins in Division 1 basketball history.
At 88 the coach Geno Auriemma was pretty fired up and lashed out about the press and coverage of the team. Indicating he displeasure with the lack of coverage and appreciation for Women's Basketball. How is he feeling now?
Well President Barack Obama gave him a call. It was reported that he told the President "It's an incredible thing these kids have done".
The record is not official. There currently is no combined Men's / Women's records. Huskies beat the Women's back at 82 games. Previous record was held by Division III Washington University of St. Louis which won 81 straight games from 1998 to 2001.
Huskies have also now tied the most consecutive home wins at 69.
The Huskie women had new shirts that said "89". They celebrated and danced to the song "All I Do Is Win" and took their picture at midcourt.
Congrats UCONN!!!! Keep it going!!!!!!
JZ!
It was reported during the final minutes that the crowd chanted "89!", and now they have the most consecutive wins in Division 1 basketball history.
At 88 the coach Geno Auriemma was pretty fired up and lashed out about the press and coverage of the team. Indicating he displeasure with the lack of coverage and appreciation for Women's Basketball. How is he feeling now?
Well President Barack Obama gave him a call. It was reported that he told the President "It's an incredible thing these kids have done".
The record is not official. There currently is no combined Men's / Women's records. Huskies beat the Women's back at 82 games. Previous record was held by Division III Washington University of St. Louis which won 81 straight games from 1998 to 2001.
Huskies have also now tied the most consecutive home wins at 69.
The Huskie women had new shirts that said "89". They celebrated and danced to the song "All I Do Is Win" and took their picture at midcourt.
Congrats UCONN!!!! Keep it going!!!!!!
JZ!
Thursday, December 16, 2010
Consumer Electronics Sale at Sears Dec 18th
Please see the invitation below from the President of Electronics at Sears for Dec 18th.
Dear Valued Partner,
I want to personally invite you to the Sears Consumer Electronics 10% Off* Sale this Saturday, December 18th.
It’s the perfect opportunity to get those last minute gifts that you’ve been meaning to purchase for a few weeks now. At this event you’ll find almost everything in the electronics department – from regular priced items to items on sale and clearance—is an extra 10% off.
You can also take advantage of this great sale online by entering the promo code “Extra10Wishes” at checkout.
Please feel free to share with our family and friends!
We truly appreciate your support and hope you are having a very Happy Holiday Season!
Thank You,
Karen Austin
SVP & President, Consumer Electronics
*Excludes TVs under 40”, Video game hardware, Bose, Onkyo, prepaid calling cards, iTunes, Sony DSLR, lenses, iPod, converter boxes, computers, LG, Samsung, Sony.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Best Buy TV sales still soft
Best Buy just reported it missed its quarter numbers.
One of the noted areas that missed was TVs. It missed by double digit unit decline and mid single digit sales revenue decline.
The inventory reported at this team does not seem to be much higher then in prior years, but with a miss in the low double digit in units it is hard to imagine they are where they want to be. Some estimate they are 12% over inventory.
There appears to be market share loss to competitors such as Amazon and Wal-Mart. Best Buy's overall market share has been reported to have declined 100 bps in the quarter.
Best Buy has also guided Feb reporting below expectation.
JZ
One of the noted areas that missed was TVs. It missed by double digit unit decline and mid single digit sales revenue decline.
The inventory reported at this team does not seem to be much higher then in prior years, but with a miss in the low double digit in units it is hard to imagine they are where they want to be. Some estimate they are 12% over inventory.
There appears to be market share loss to competitors such as Amazon and Wal-Mart. Best Buy's overall market share has been reported to have declined 100 bps in the quarter.
Best Buy has also guided Feb reporting below expectation.
JZ
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Samsung reducing production of LCD Panels
Samsung Electronics has announced that it will reduce the utilization rate of the factory to lower the output of LCD panels. This is due to weak demand and to help the global supply glut.
This is a reversal from years past in which dropping price to prop up demand has been the action taken to resolve oversupply issues. This is a much healthier approach overall and one the industry has needed for some time.
Weakest markets right now are Europe and the U.S. If other panel providers follow (actually quite a few have greatly reduce factory utilization already without any announcements) it could help provide an industry recovery. (Sony could use this after 7 years of negative profit on their TV business).
Both South Korean panel makers, LG & Samsung, saw profit drop nearly in half from 2nd quarter to 3rd quarter this year, largely because of weak panel prices.
Interesting is that both LG and Samsung have won approval to build brand new panel factories in China. Which would add to the total glut, not take away. There has been some talk that they are flexible about the timing of when the factories will be complete and ramp up production from them. AUO is also moving to build a factory in China as well, adding to the possible oversupply vs. real demand for LCD panels.
JZ
This is a reversal from years past in which dropping price to prop up demand has been the action taken to resolve oversupply issues. This is a much healthier approach overall and one the industry has needed for some time.
Weakest markets right now are Europe and the U.S. If other panel providers follow (actually quite a few have greatly reduce factory utilization already without any announcements) it could help provide an industry recovery. (Sony could use this after 7 years of negative profit on their TV business).
Both South Korean panel makers, LG & Samsung, saw profit drop nearly in half from 2nd quarter to 3rd quarter this year, largely because of weak panel prices.
Interesting is that both LG and Samsung have won approval to build brand new panel factories in China. Which would add to the total glut, not take away. There has been some talk that they are flexible about the timing of when the factories will be complete and ramp up production from them. AUO is also moving to build a factory in China as well, adding to the possible oversupply vs. real demand for LCD panels.
JZ
Monday, November 8, 2010
LCD TV Inventory Under Control
LG is now the second company to come out and discuss their Inventory Position on TVs.
They don't expect to see any desperate moves in LCD pricing, and will not be slashing prices to move product.
Now you have two major TV vendors indicating Inventory is in control and pricing will not be out of control.
Holding back and waiting on that deal may not work this holiday season. If you see something you want, you may want to consider getting it quick before it is gone.
JZ
They don't expect to see any desperate moves in LCD pricing, and will not be slashing prices to move product.
Now you have two major TV vendors indicating Inventory is in control and pricing will not be out of control.
Holding back and waiting on that deal may not work this holiday season. If you see something you want, you may want to consider getting it quick before it is gone.
JZ
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Sony CFO Speaks
Could the industry be seeing the error of its ways?
Sony's CFO Masaru Kato has indicated that Sony will sell less, vs. building up inventory and dropping price for another year of losses for the company.
I guess Sony has finally decided (at least the CFO) that chasing market share for the sake of chasing it is not a viable business model. 7 years of losses for the TV division have put some new ways of thinking about how to run the business. Building to market share expectations doesn't work. Building on a model and supporting the business and a model weeks of supply against actual sales trend has more logic and tendency to drive business results you can take to the bank.
As one of the leaders I have worked with in the past would always say "Business done for fun is better left undone"
Sony is not a non-profit organization, it cannot support new R&D to bring new products that US or any other market would want if it cannot reinvest profit into R&D. It needs to be able to support its overhead.
Could the days of the spoiled US consumer on Electronics be over? Could we be starting down the path to break the cycle of losing money on new product launches just to hit a unit sales / market share number which has resulted in large loses in the industry? Look at the number of brands that are gone, or are basically non-existent today due to this cycle? It has not only impacted TV Vendors, but look at the number of quality Electronic Retailers that are no longer here today as well.
I applaud the stance the Sony CFO is taking, and I hope he can hold off the Marketing team and Sales team that continue to drive to a unit number for the year for Sony. If they chase this number, Masaru Kato's attempt to go down a new logical path and financially sound path will be derailed.
As much as the consumers feel they are rewarded by plummeting prices on technology, be careful what you wish for. Research and Development of new technology that has improved our lives over the years can not be supported and continued with negative income. Innovation begins to go to a crawl. We have not had a new revolutionary product in some time. We are in an evolution cycle for the majority of Consumer Electronics products.
DVD to Blu-Ray, Flat Screens to Flatter Screens, Iphone 3 to 3G , to 3Gs to Iphone 4. Notebook to Tablet
To develop something completely new, consumer electronics companies need to be able to feed the research and development teams. Not chasing Units / Market Share / and running a factory 100% capacity if there isn't someone willing to buy what is being produced.
Sony CFO has spoken - will other follow - will Sony really hold back and forgo some sales to keep inventory and profits in line? Only the holiday season will tell.
I for one hope that the Sony CFO and company can hold its position, if the industry can change the current destructive path it is on, I see a brighter future for all.
JZ
Sony's CFO Masaru Kato has indicated that Sony will sell less, vs. building up inventory and dropping price for another year of losses for the company.
I guess Sony has finally decided (at least the CFO) that chasing market share for the sake of chasing it is not a viable business model. 7 years of losses for the TV division have put some new ways of thinking about how to run the business. Building to market share expectations doesn't work. Building on a model and supporting the business and a model weeks of supply against actual sales trend has more logic and tendency to drive business results you can take to the bank.
As one of the leaders I have worked with in the past would always say "Business done for fun is better left undone"
Sony is not a non-profit organization, it cannot support new R&D to bring new products that US or any other market would want if it cannot reinvest profit into R&D. It needs to be able to support its overhead.
Could the days of the spoiled US consumer on Electronics be over? Could we be starting down the path to break the cycle of losing money on new product launches just to hit a unit sales / market share number which has resulted in large loses in the industry? Look at the number of brands that are gone, or are basically non-existent today due to this cycle? It has not only impacted TV Vendors, but look at the number of quality Electronic Retailers that are no longer here today as well.
I applaud the stance the Sony CFO is taking, and I hope he can hold off the Marketing team and Sales team that continue to drive to a unit number for the year for Sony. If they chase this number, Masaru Kato's attempt to go down a new logical path and financially sound path will be derailed.
As much as the consumers feel they are rewarded by plummeting prices on technology, be careful what you wish for. Research and Development of new technology that has improved our lives over the years can not be supported and continued with negative income. Innovation begins to go to a crawl. We have not had a new revolutionary product in some time. We are in an evolution cycle for the majority of Consumer Electronics products.
DVD to Blu-Ray, Flat Screens to Flatter Screens, Iphone 3 to 3G , to 3Gs to Iphone 4. Notebook to Tablet
To develop something completely new, consumer electronics companies need to be able to feed the research and development teams. Not chasing Units / Market Share / and running a factory 100% capacity if there isn't someone willing to buy what is being produced.
Sony CFO has spoken - will other follow - will Sony really hold back and forgo some sales to keep inventory and profits in line? Only the holiday season will tell.
I for one hope that the Sony CFO and company can hold its position, if the industry can change the current destructive path it is on, I see a brighter future for all.
JZ
Friday, October 22, 2010
Technology Roadblock! Give it away!
I was not all that amazed today when I read that leaders in the TV industry felt dropping price is the only way to hit targets this year.
As the US economy suffers, Unemployment sticking at 9.6%, do we really think PRICE is going to increase sales enough, when people are simply putting off a new TV purchase. The size the current one is OK and it works just fine? Yes it may not be 3D, it may not have IPTV, it may not be a new LED slim form factor with some minimal power savings. Interesting enough, we all seem to be missing the fact that the US consumer has woken up from the punch drunk days of spending when the economy was so good.
What do I mean by this? It is rather simple, people are spending on what they NEED more than what they WANT. Even more of an impact is that they have learned to even adjust the amount that they WANT. What they want is not as feature reach as it has been in the past. Goals for achieving new items have been reset to a new level. (The one who dies with the most toys WIN - and it doesn't have to bee the fanciest toys anymore)
I have coined this as the "It's good enough" point of view. If I currently own a perfectly good working 8.0 mega pixel camera, why would I toss it and buy a 10.0 - 12.0 mega pixel camera. I am not taking the time to learn about the other technology of smile ,eye, face recognition that is in the new camera, or the new lens, or light sensor and so on, so based on the basics of ANY item what I have is GOOD ENOUGH.
The day of moving a TV to another room before it dies as the excuse to put another (previously driven more by size than feature anyway) large and more featured set in the home are seeing it's days numbers. First my IT'S GOOD ENOUGH point of view. Next the current housing situation, and the downsizing their homes. Average home sizes have been reduced, not increasing, offsetting the ability for the industry's to belief there will be more TVs per home and larger TVs per home. TVs per home have increase from 2.1 to 2.7 TVs, but I do not expect that to continue, and would not be surprised if it goes in reverse.
What do most people want from their TV. Great picture at a reasonable price. The TV alone without content does NOTHING. 3DTV lacks content, and people still fear the quality, as well as the need to wear glasses. It is one thing when a person decides to go to the movies and watch for about 2 hrs. No multitasking is intended. You are there to watch the movie, you want to see it in 3D, and your willing to pay for it. At home you may want the big screen, everyone has seemed to abandon caring about the sound, and you like to multitask when you watch movies , sports , news , shows. (popularity of DVR and ability to pause live TV). This puts 3DTV in the back seat at your house. Putting on glasses at home is not about how it LOOKS, but what you can or can not do at home while watching TV is impacted.
IPTV has an incredible laundry list of challenges in front of it. Speed, connectivity, content, interface and usability. In the US we don't have the speed due to a non-existent Broadband program in the US. Our speeds are incredibly slow. (We still have people using DIAL UP!). If you have Broadband it could still be on Wireless A or B or G, as there has not been any reason to go to N and N wasn't a solid choice until recently. Wired? Well same issue with all these flat panels sitting on some sort of shelving vs hanging. The power and other connection are not located up on the wall. Cost of that installation is preventing the majority of people placing / moving this on the wall. Same issue exists with Internet. Most people have installed the HARD wire connection of the Internet in the office or loft where the computer is, not where any other Consumer Electronics are. (TV, DVD, and such). Wireless - not fast enough / Wired - to costly to move. New homes help, but as we all know new housing will not rebound for some time, and would only be a SMALL slice of people purchasing new TVs.
LED - Thin TVs - as mentioned above - if you are not hanging it on the wall - WHO CARES?!?!
Feel green, great, get an LED, but similar to the Automotive industry, how much are you willing to pay to be green? Just like the CAR you will NOT save enough in energy to justify the price increase at current markup for LED today.
So what do we see in the market, an overall soft TV market for the majority of the year in the US. We don't have a switch from Analog to HDTV a valid reason to upgrade a TV. We are not moving from HUGE crts or rear projection TVs to FLAT, another significant change the people where willing to spend money for. Now we are moving back into Evolutionary changes vs. Revolutionary changes.
To make all of this worse the industry sets targets (based on sales AND PROFIT) and when they do not look like they will achieve the targets for units and market share they chase the SALES and throw away any PROFIT.
Why continue to develop new product to lose money?!?!?! Bit of a death spiral for most companies trying to survive. If all of these companies had to survive on the Profit or Loss of just the Electronics category alone, I would argue that most would be gone.
We are not developing (for the most part) technology that customers WANT. This is a broad statement and is pointed more at TVs. Companies are struggling to cram another way to make money vs. off the item itself to offset the self inflicted pain of selling cheap when units do not sell up to expectation (IPTV). The industry has put the cart in front of the horse in this attempt, ignoring the fact that the quality / connectability / content are all severely lacking. 3DTV is severely lacking in Content, ignore the concern on glasses, I can't get a decent movie if I wanted to. (Hollywood is still trying to solve the issue with Blu-Ray and why it isn't selling and can't spend time money on 3D movies for the home yet).
Some success in the industry is coming from companies that are taking the time to find ways to bring customers items that make their life more enjoyable and improve the way they do things. Simplifying MUSIC, making it easy to have your entire music collection in your hand. Making it easy to access more content and get that content easily. A company that has taken the PC and put it in a portable format that has a proven interface that people enjoy using. Putting application on a portable device that makes it easy to interact socially and connect with others. Take pictures and send over the cellular network. Take video and send. All through nice devices with touch screens, easy for must of us to understand without ever reading a manual (true sign of a well built device - If you need to put a sign of PUSH or PULL on a door you didn't design it very well).
What would sell more TVs? More Technology? Devices that are EASIER to use, to connect, to share with others. There has been little change or improvement on the way we interact with a TV (remote control).
The biggest issue is we do not properly inform customers of all the great STUFF that is in the technology. Since they can not understand the benefits of what they could buy, they can not apply a VALUE. If I don't know what GOOD something will bring to my life I will not be able to decide how MUCH I am willing to pay for it.
The result - when it is cheap enough - sure I'll buy it. It may have 20 things in it that I won't use, but it's OK because I didn't pay a premium for it. (as some Tier 1 TV vendors have stated recently about the expectation that they will need to drop prices to sell - 3DTV, IPTV, LED)
The industry needs to take a serious look at the vicious cycle we are in that is driving down profit, and ability to take that profit and reinvest in new technology.
JZ
As the US economy suffers, Unemployment sticking at 9.6%, do we really think PRICE is going to increase sales enough, when people are simply putting off a new TV purchase. The size the current one is OK and it works just fine? Yes it may not be 3D, it may not have IPTV, it may not be a new LED slim form factor with some minimal power savings. Interesting enough, we all seem to be missing the fact that the US consumer has woken up from the punch drunk days of spending when the economy was so good.
What do I mean by this? It is rather simple, people are spending on what they NEED more than what they WANT. Even more of an impact is that they have learned to even adjust the amount that they WANT. What they want is not as feature reach as it has been in the past. Goals for achieving new items have been reset to a new level. (The one who dies with the most toys WIN - and it doesn't have to bee the fanciest toys anymore)
I have coined this as the "It's good enough" point of view. If I currently own a perfectly good working 8.0 mega pixel camera, why would I toss it and buy a 10.0 - 12.0 mega pixel camera. I am not taking the time to learn about the other technology of smile ,eye, face recognition that is in the new camera, or the new lens, or light sensor and so on, so based on the basics of ANY item what I have is GOOD ENOUGH.
The day of moving a TV to another room before it dies as the excuse to put another (previously driven more by size than feature anyway) large and more featured set in the home are seeing it's days numbers. First my IT'S GOOD ENOUGH point of view. Next the current housing situation, and the downsizing their homes. Average home sizes have been reduced, not increasing, offsetting the ability for the industry's to belief there will be more TVs per home and larger TVs per home. TVs per home have increase from 2.1 to 2.7 TVs, but I do not expect that to continue, and would not be surprised if it goes in reverse.
What do most people want from their TV. Great picture at a reasonable price. The TV alone without content does NOTHING. 3DTV lacks content, and people still fear the quality, as well as the need to wear glasses. It is one thing when a person decides to go to the movies and watch for about 2 hrs. No multitasking is intended. You are there to watch the movie, you want to see it in 3D, and your willing to pay for it. At home you may want the big screen, everyone has seemed to abandon caring about the sound, and you like to multitask when you watch movies , sports , news , shows. (popularity of DVR and ability to pause live TV). This puts 3DTV in the back seat at your house. Putting on glasses at home is not about how it LOOKS, but what you can or can not do at home while watching TV is impacted.
IPTV has an incredible laundry list of challenges in front of it. Speed, connectivity, content, interface and usability. In the US we don't have the speed due to a non-existent Broadband program in the US. Our speeds are incredibly slow. (We still have people using DIAL UP!). If you have Broadband it could still be on Wireless A or B or G, as there has not been any reason to go to N and N wasn't a solid choice until recently. Wired? Well same issue with all these flat panels sitting on some sort of shelving vs hanging. The power and other connection are not located up on the wall. Cost of that installation is preventing the majority of people placing / moving this on the wall. Same issue exists with Internet. Most people have installed the HARD wire connection of the Internet in the office or loft where the computer is, not where any other Consumer Electronics are. (TV, DVD, and such). Wireless - not fast enough / Wired - to costly to move. New homes help, but as we all know new housing will not rebound for some time, and would only be a SMALL slice of people purchasing new TVs.
LED - Thin TVs - as mentioned above - if you are not hanging it on the wall - WHO CARES?!?!
Feel green, great, get an LED, but similar to the Automotive industry, how much are you willing to pay to be green? Just like the CAR you will NOT save enough in energy to justify the price increase at current markup for LED today.
So what do we see in the market, an overall soft TV market for the majority of the year in the US. We don't have a switch from Analog to HDTV a valid reason to upgrade a TV. We are not moving from HUGE crts or rear projection TVs to FLAT, another significant change the people where willing to spend money for. Now we are moving back into Evolutionary changes vs. Revolutionary changes.
To make all of this worse the industry sets targets (based on sales AND PROFIT) and when they do not look like they will achieve the targets for units and market share they chase the SALES and throw away any PROFIT.
Why continue to develop new product to lose money?!?!?! Bit of a death spiral for most companies trying to survive. If all of these companies had to survive on the Profit or Loss of just the Electronics category alone, I would argue that most would be gone.
We are not developing (for the most part) technology that customers WANT. This is a broad statement and is pointed more at TVs. Companies are struggling to cram another way to make money vs. off the item itself to offset the self inflicted pain of selling cheap when units do not sell up to expectation (IPTV). The industry has put the cart in front of the horse in this attempt, ignoring the fact that the quality / connectability / content are all severely lacking. 3DTV is severely lacking in Content, ignore the concern on glasses, I can't get a decent movie if I wanted to. (Hollywood is still trying to solve the issue with Blu-Ray and why it isn't selling and can't spend time money on 3D movies for the home yet).
Some success in the industry is coming from companies that are taking the time to find ways to bring customers items that make their life more enjoyable and improve the way they do things. Simplifying MUSIC, making it easy to have your entire music collection in your hand. Making it easy to access more content and get that content easily. A company that has taken the PC and put it in a portable format that has a proven interface that people enjoy using. Putting application on a portable device that makes it easy to interact socially and connect with others. Take pictures and send over the cellular network. Take video and send. All through nice devices with touch screens, easy for must of us to understand without ever reading a manual (true sign of a well built device - If you need to put a sign of PUSH or PULL on a door you didn't design it very well).
What would sell more TVs? More Technology? Devices that are EASIER to use, to connect, to share with others. There has been little change or improvement on the way we interact with a TV (remote control).
The biggest issue is we do not properly inform customers of all the great STUFF that is in the technology. Since they can not understand the benefits of what they could buy, they can not apply a VALUE. If I don't know what GOOD something will bring to my life I will not be able to decide how MUCH I am willing to pay for it.
The result - when it is cheap enough - sure I'll buy it. It may have 20 things in it that I won't use, but it's OK because I didn't pay a premium for it. (as some Tier 1 TV vendors have stated recently about the expectation that they will need to drop prices to sell - 3DTV, IPTV, LED)
The industry needs to take a serious look at the vicious cycle we are in that is driving down profit, and ability to take that profit and reinvest in new technology.
JZ
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
Why Connected TVs Will Be About the Content, Not the Apps
See below from Jeremy Toeman - Very good point of view on how to have consumers care about Connected TVs.
Right now you have IPTVs selling that almost no one is using.... he points out why they are not using, or not buying below.
JZ
About 3 hours ago 7
Jeremy Toeman has worked in the field of convergence between computers, the Internet and TV for over 10 years. He is a founding partner of Stage Two, a consumer technology product experience firm in San Francisco, and can be found blogging at livedigitally.com.
Right now you have IPTVs selling that almost no one is using.... he points out why they are not using, or not buying below.
JZ
About 3 hours ago 7
Why Connected TVs Will Be About the Content, Not the Apps
Jeremy Toeman has worked in the field of convergence between computers, the Internet and TV for over 10 years. He is a founding partner of Stage Two, a consumer technology product experience firm in San Francisco, and can be found blogging at livedigitally.com.With the recent launches of the revamped Roku and the new Apple TV, Samsung’s connected TVs in stores already, and Google TV and the Boxee Box looming large on the horizon, the connected device space is officially heating up. New Internet TV devices, be they connected TVs, smart set top boxes, digital media streamers, or whatever else, are offering consumers virtually limitless access to content by bringing the best — and of course the worst — the Internet() has to offer straight into the living room.
But beyond just “get more content on your TV,” we’re starting to see a lot of energy focused on “apps on your TV.” Right now, wired TVs and Wi-Fi enabled Blu()-ray players come equipped with everything from YouTube() (cool) to TED Talks (awesome) to Pandora() (sweet) to Twitter() (huh?).
When it comes to video and music apps (entertainment), the value proposition is clear: more content on my TV. But what’s the value of non-entertainment apps? And how can the device makers communicate that value?
Disclosure: The author has worked and/or consulted for many companies in this space, including those mentioned here and their direct competitors. A complete client list is available here.
Take a look at this photo I took at Costco recently. This is how Samsung is selling the Smart TV experience to consumers.
The four apps featured on the box are Twitter, Facebook(), Dailymotion and AccuWeather.com. In order, most mainstream Costco shoppers will see this as: a stream of hashtag-infused sound bites, farm updates from their high school friends, an unfamiliar video site and a weather app that replicates what they already get on the Weather Channel, their smartphones and laptops. This is supposed to make someone want to buy a premium, top-of-the-line TV?
The point of this is not to pick on Samsung; almost every player in the connected TV space is erroneously highlighting apps when they should be highlighting content. Other than Dailymotion, which is at least a video content offering (albeit far from mainstream), what can the others offer? It’s not being communicated in this ad.
The current industry vision for Twitter on your TV is essentially a direct port of a Twitter client into your living room that adds almost no content to the experience. In this scenario, your television faithfully recreates the Twitter experience for wired couch potatoes. Never mind that people already have Twitter on their phone, iPad, laptop, and already do tweet from the couch. Never mind that tweeting from your TV would likely require a full keyboard –- or worse, some sort of onscreen keypad. Never mind that browsing links to websites optimized for computer and mobile screens is never fun on a television. Replicating Twitter as-is on a connected TV it is not a win for anyone. And yet, this is what all the manufacturers are doing.
Twitter can work on the TV, though, if you think about the content that a Twitter feed inherently presents.
Imagine a TV Twitter “client” that is focused on a visual content delivery experience. Rather than reading or replying to tweets, a content-focused approach to Twitter on your TV would pull out the rich media that people are sharing. What if you could, for example, subscribe to the TED Twitter feed and watch all the videos that it shares automatically on your television? What if the TV Twitter client automatically pulled out the YouTube videos your friends shared on Twitter or the Twitpic() images and automatically put them in an easily browsable gallery? What if it didn’t feel like Twitter at all?
Living room users don’t care about trivial updates and hashtags. They care about media and entertainment (or infotainment). For TV apps to succeed, they need to provide engaging content to the audience. For connected TV apps to resonate with casual users and gain wide adoption, they must recognize that it’s all about content in the end. This, of course, requires more imagination, more innovation and a bit more work. But it can be done, and the future of connected device apps depends on developers enthusiastically marching down this path.
Why am I convinced that content is king for the digital home? Because consumers have traditionally paid a premium for more access to media in their living rooms. As TV evolved from three to 500 channels, and later introduced VCRs, DVD players and DVR, it was the access to content, and not the technology itself, that fueled mass adoption. When content providers offer more choices, users are willing to pay more for increased access to new media.
Interactive TV has tried and failed for 20 years because it has always focused on features and functions instead of content. So how can connected devices and media companies push new, app-delivered content?
First, start foregrounding that content. In marketing, benefits beat features, which beat raw specs. By embracing the “Now With Apps!” marketing mantra, consumer electronic companies are highlighting features. They might as well be advertising the shipping weight of their devices or the HD processor inside. The function of smart devices in the digital living room is to entertain people.
Second, everyone from app developers to smart device manufacturers to marketing and ad executives must humanize this new technology. Tell a story. Engage people’s emotions. Draw users in by making technology personal. The average user doesn’t get excited that his or her TV has a Flickr() app. But most people would like to see photos of their friends and family on the TV. Average users can’t easily identify with a Pandora app, but the idea of your TV playing the kind of music you want to hear sounds appealing. There’s probably even a place for showing pictures of cats with funny captions — just don’t call it an app.
Saying the name of the TV app doesn’t sell it. Sure, if you are reading this blog, many of those apps make sense, but for shoppers at Costco, it looks like word salad. The future of the digital home is exciting, to be sure. In order to effectively launch a smart living room, the industry as a whole needs to focus on the experiences people can have with new technology and not rattle off a bullet list of apps.
Electronics companies and entrepreneurs must understand the psychology of the couch. It is the one location where people want to be entertained, often passively. They spend all day in front of phones, e-mail, Twitter and Facebook. When they kick back on the couch, the last thing they want to see is a list of unread e-mails and a loading screen.
That’s why a winning way to make and market connected TV in 2011 is delivering content, not apps.
But beyond just “get more content on your TV,” we’re starting to see a lot of energy focused on “apps on your TV.” Right now, wired TVs and Wi-Fi enabled Blu()-ray players come equipped with everything from YouTube() (cool) to TED Talks (awesome) to Pandora() (sweet) to Twitter() (huh?).
When it comes to video and music apps (entertainment), the value proposition is clear: more content on my TV. But what’s the value of non-entertainment apps? And how can the device makers communicate that value?
Disclosure: The author has worked and/or consulted for many companies in this space, including those mentioned here and their direct competitors. A complete client list is available here.
What’s Wrong With This Picture?
Take a look at this photo I took at Costco recently. This is how Samsung is selling the Smart TV experience to consumers.
The four apps featured on the box are Twitter, Facebook(), Dailymotion and AccuWeather.com. In order, most mainstream Costco shoppers will see this as: a stream of hashtag-infused sound bites, farm updates from their high school friends, an unfamiliar video site and a weather app that replicates what they already get on the Weather Channel, their smartphones and laptops. This is supposed to make someone want to buy a premium, top-of-the-line TV?
The point of this is not to pick on Samsung; almost every player in the connected TV space is erroneously highlighting apps when they should be highlighting content. Other than Dailymotion, which is at least a video content offering (albeit far from mainstream), what can the others offer? It’s not being communicated in this ad.
Where’s the Value in Twitter on Your TV?
The current industry vision for Twitter on your TV is essentially a direct port of a Twitter client into your living room that adds almost no content to the experience. In this scenario, your television faithfully recreates the Twitter experience for wired couch potatoes. Never mind that people already have Twitter on their phone, iPad, laptop, and already do tweet from the couch. Never mind that tweeting from your TV would likely require a full keyboard –- or worse, some sort of onscreen keypad. Never mind that browsing links to websites optimized for computer and mobile screens is never fun on a television. Replicating Twitter as-is on a connected TV it is not a win for anyone. And yet, this is what all the manufacturers are doing.
Twitter can work on the TV, though, if you think about the content that a Twitter feed inherently presents.
Imagine a TV Twitter “client” that is focused on a visual content delivery experience. Rather than reading or replying to tweets, a content-focused approach to Twitter on your TV would pull out the rich media that people are sharing. What if you could, for example, subscribe to the TED Twitter feed and watch all the videos that it shares automatically on your television? What if the TV Twitter client automatically pulled out the YouTube videos your friends shared on Twitter or the Twitpic() images and automatically put them in an easily browsable gallery? What if it didn’t feel like Twitter at all?
Living room users don’t care about trivial updates and hashtags. They care about media and entertainment (or infotainment). For TV apps to succeed, they need to provide engaging content to the audience. For connected TV apps to resonate with casual users and gain wide adoption, they must recognize that it’s all about content in the end. This, of course, requires more imagination, more innovation and a bit more work. But it can be done, and the future of connected device apps depends on developers enthusiastically marching down this path.
How Connected Device Companies Can Win
Why am I convinced that content is king for the digital home? Because consumers have traditionally paid a premium for more access to media in their living rooms. As TV evolved from three to 500 channels, and later introduced VCRs, DVD players and DVR, it was the access to content, and not the technology itself, that fueled mass adoption. When content providers offer more choices, users are willing to pay more for increased access to new media.
Interactive TV has tried and failed for 20 years because it has always focused on features and functions instead of content. So how can connected devices and media companies push new, app-delivered content?
First, start foregrounding that content. In marketing, benefits beat features, which beat raw specs. By embracing the “Now With Apps!” marketing mantra, consumer electronic companies are highlighting features. They might as well be advertising the shipping weight of their devices or the HD processor inside. The function of smart devices in the digital living room is to entertain people.
Second, everyone from app developers to smart device manufacturers to marketing and ad executives must humanize this new technology. Tell a story. Engage people’s emotions. Draw users in by making technology personal. The average user doesn’t get excited that his or her TV has a Flickr() app. But most people would like to see photos of their friends and family on the TV. Average users can’t easily identify with a Pandora app, but the idea of your TV playing the kind of music you want to hear sounds appealing. There’s probably even a place for showing pictures of cats with funny captions — just don’t call it an app.
Saying the name of the TV app doesn’t sell it. Sure, if you are reading this blog, many of those apps make sense, but for shoppers at Costco, it looks like word salad. The future of the digital home is exciting, to be sure. In order to effectively launch a smart living room, the industry as a whole needs to focus on the experiences people can have with new technology and not rattle off a bullet list of apps.
The Living Room State of Mind
Electronics companies and entrepreneurs must understand the psychology of the couch. It is the one location where people want to be entertained, often passively. They spend all day in front of phones, e-mail, Twitter and Facebook. When they kick back on the couch, the last thing they want to see is a list of unread e-mails and a loading screen.
That’s why a winning way to make and market connected TV in 2011 is delivering content, not apps.
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
Sony TVs not really made by Sony anymore
Sony continue to shift to more outsourcing of it's TV line. Even high end models have now been announced as being outsourced.
Foxconn Electronics has been expected to produce the Sony framless unltra-thin models. Wistron is expected to produce their Google TV that is just in the process of release.
Foxconn Electronics has been expected to produce the Sony framless unltra-thin models. Wistron is expected to produce their Google TV that is just in the process of release.
Sony's LCD TV outsourced orders are expected to reach 70-80% of its total shipments in 2011, of which its Taiwan-based manufacture partner Foxconn is expected to receive orders of 15-18 million units, exceeding its fellow Taiwan-based competitor Wistron.
In order to save its TV business and return it to profit, Sony has been selling its overseas LCD TV manufacturing plants, increasing its outsourcing and expanding its lineup of lower-cost models. Amid the increasing market share and sales, Sony has turned profitable and ended the embarrassing situation of six years of losses. Sony is expected to reach its shipment goal of 25 million LCD TVs for the 2010 fiscal year ended March 2011, and the shipments may increase to 26 million units for the year, of which 40-50% will be outsourced.
Sony originally planned to increase its LCD TV shipment goal for 2011 to 40 million units. However, the company has lowered the goal to 36 million units amid weakening demand in the global market. In terms of manufacturing strategy, 20-30% of the total shipments will be in-house designs and the rest will be divided equally between ODM and OEM, of which high-end frameless models will be produced by Foxconn and hit the market in the first half of 2011. This will be the first time for Sony to outsource high-end models to Taiwan-based makers.
Sony indicated that its outsourcing strategy for LCD TVs will remain unchanged and will continue to focus on increasing competitiveness, but the company declined to comment on its orders to an individual manufacturer. Observers in the TV industry noted that Sony will release significant orders to Foxconn as the Taiwan-based maker took over the LCD TV assembly plants in Mexico and Slovakia, making Foxconn the largest manufacturer for Sony with 16-18 million units of orders. Although OEM orders will remain as the majority party of the total orders from Sony, Foxconn's affiliate LCD panel maker Chimei Innolux (CMI) is expected to benefit and supply TV panels for about 40-50% of the total orders.
JZ
Technology American adults own
A recent survey by Pew research center's internet and American Life Project showed the following results.
85% own Cell Phones
59% own Desktop computers
52% own Laptop computers
47% own MP3 player
42% own Video Game system
5% own an Ereader
4% own a tablet computer
Report shows a shift to people accessing the Internet through mobile phone and quickly moving to tablet computers as well.
These are considered 7 key items for the information age. Expectations are that tablet sales will reach 19.5 Million units in 2010. 30-52% of Americans in 2006 owned a PC or Laptop, this is now up to 75% in 2010.
Tablets are expected to take a large share of sales away from Netbooks, mini notebooks, inexpensive laptops.
An opportunity called out with this new wave of mobility and mobile technology is security. Security professionals will have a great opportunity in providing level of control and security, but need to be mindful of not stifling the flexibility and mobility of employees.
Report also allows everyone to determine which lines may have the most upside potential in the short term. It also allows producers of each product category the ability to see the need to move into a replacement cycle or downward trend on categories. Question is which technologies have the ability to stick around and be replaced by more features items, and which technologies are at risk of being replaced all together by new technology (impact tablets will have on laptops).
JZ
85% own Cell Phones
59% own Desktop computers
52% own Laptop computers
47% own MP3 player
42% own Video Game system
5% own an Ereader
4% own a tablet computer
Report shows a shift to people accessing the Internet through mobile phone and quickly moving to tablet computers as well.
These are considered 7 key items for the information age. Expectations are that tablet sales will reach 19.5 Million units in 2010. 30-52% of Americans in 2006 owned a PC or Laptop, this is now up to 75% in 2010.
Tablets are expected to take a large share of sales away from Netbooks, mini notebooks, inexpensive laptops.
An opportunity called out with this new wave of mobility and mobile technology is security. Security professionals will have a great opportunity in providing level of control and security, but need to be mindful of not stifling the flexibility and mobility of employees.
Report also allows everyone to determine which lines may have the most upside potential in the short term. It also allows producers of each product category the ability to see the need to move into a replacement cycle or downward trend on categories. Question is which technologies have the ability to stick around and be replaced by more features items, and which technologies are at risk of being replaced all together by new technology (impact tablets will have on laptops).
JZ
Monday, October 18, 2010
Video Game Sales take hit in September
Video Game software sales fell in September 6% down to $614 Million.
Video Game hardware took a larger hit down 19% to $383 Million.
Non-traditional video game spending is up, though this is hard to measure NPD has released its first report.
The move is, in part, defensive. NPD tracks and publishes monthly data on video game store sales, and has taken flak from video game executives for failing to account for new and increasingly popular ways of buying games.
The study marks the first time that NPD has released non-traditional video game sales figures and provides evidence that consumer spending on video games is 40 percent larger than it previously believed.
It estimated that non-traditional sales are at least $2.6 billion and as high as $2.9 billion, NPD said. The figures include used video game sales.
"This is an industry that is going through some pretty serious dramatic changes to its business model," said David McQuillan, NPD's games president. "We have to change along with them to properly reflect the overall trends going on within the market."
Many customers are buying games through downloads or by visiting online social networks to play games offered by companies such as Zynga.
Apple Inc's iPhone has also become a major gaming platform, with users buying games through the App Store.
JZ
Video Game hardware took a larger hit down 19% to $383 Million.
Non-traditional video game spending is up, though this is hard to measure NPD has released its first report.
The move is, in part, defensive. NPD tracks and publishes monthly data on video game store sales, and has taken flak from video game executives for failing to account for new and increasingly popular ways of buying games.
The study marks the first time that NPD has released non-traditional video game sales figures and provides evidence that consumer spending on video games is 40 percent larger than it previously believed.
It estimated that non-traditional sales are at least $2.6 billion and as high as $2.9 billion, NPD said. The figures include used video game sales.
"This is an industry that is going through some pretty serious dramatic changes to its business model," said David McQuillan, NPD's games president. "We have to change along with them to properly reflect the overall trends going on within the market."
Many customers are buying games through downloads or by visiting online social networks to play games offered by companies such as Zynga.
Apple Inc's iPhone has also become a major gaming platform, with users buying games through the App Store.
JZ
Saturday, October 9, 2010
Health Care Fear / Savings drives people to work longer
Two out of Five has said they will work longer , delaying their retirement date. This is due to a fear of Health Care costs and savings shortfalls.
They survey of over 9,000 people also showed that 40% planned to retire later than they did 2 years ago. Most responded that they will work at least another 3 years longer than they had planned.
Another point shown in the survey was that almost twice as many workers are paying off debt than they were last year, and that almost twice as many are reviewing how much they need to save for retirement.
Half of all respondents cut their daily spending, while six in 10 over-50s delaying retirement cited poorly performing 401(k)s as a factor.
The economic downturn means more than half of all workers are willing to accept larger paycheck deductions in return for guaranteed retirement benefits, the survey found.
JZ
They survey of over 9,000 people also showed that 40% planned to retire later than they did 2 years ago. Most responded that they will work at least another 3 years longer than they had planned.
Another point shown in the survey was that almost twice as many workers are paying off debt than they were last year, and that almost twice as many are reviewing how much they need to save for retirement.
Half of all respondents cut their daily spending, while six in 10 over-50s delaying retirement cited poorly performing 401(k)s as a factor.
The economic downturn means more than half of all workers are willing to accept larger paycheck deductions in return for guaranteed retirement benefits, the survey found.
JZ
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