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Friday, October 22, 2010

Technology Roadblock! Give it away!

I was not all that amazed today when I read that leaders in the TV industry felt dropping price is the only way to hit targets this year.

As the US economy suffers, Unemployment sticking at 9.6%, do we really think PRICE is going to increase sales enough, when people are simply putting off a new TV purchase. The size the current one is OK and it works just fine? Yes it may not be 3D, it may not have IPTV, it may not be a new LED slim form factor with some minimal power savings. Interesting enough, we all seem to be missing the fact that the US consumer has woken up from the punch drunk days of spending when the economy was so good.

What do I mean by this? It is rather simple, people are spending on what they NEED more than what they WANT. Even more of an impact is that they have learned to even adjust the amount that they WANT. What they want is not as feature reach as it has been in the past. Goals for achieving new items have been reset to a new level. (The one who dies with the most toys WIN - and it doesn't have to bee the fanciest toys anymore)

I have coined this as the "It's good enough" point of view. If I currently own a perfectly good working 8.0 mega pixel camera, why would I toss it and buy a 10.0 - 12.0 mega pixel camera. I am not taking the time to learn about the other technology of smile ,eye, face recognition that is in the new camera, or the new lens, or light sensor and so on, so based on the basics of ANY item what I have is GOOD ENOUGH.

The day of moving a TV to another room before it dies as the excuse to put another (previously driven more by size than feature anyway) large and more featured set in the home are seeing it's days numbers. First my IT'S GOOD ENOUGH point of view. Next the current housing situation, and the downsizing their homes. Average home sizes have been reduced, not increasing, offsetting the ability for the industry's to belief there will be more TVs per home and larger TVs per home. TVs per home have increase from 2.1 to 2.7 TVs, but I do not expect that to continue, and would not be surprised if it goes in reverse.

What do most people want from their TV. Great picture at a reasonable price. The TV alone without content does NOTHING. 3DTV lacks content, and people still fear the quality, as well as the need to wear glasses. It is one thing when a person decides to go to the movies and watch for about 2 hrs. No multitasking is intended. You are there to watch the movie, you want to see it in 3D, and your willing to pay for it. At home you may want the big screen, everyone has seemed to abandon caring about the sound, and you like to multitask when you watch movies , sports , news , shows. (popularity of DVR and ability to pause live TV). This puts 3DTV in the back seat at your house. Putting on glasses at home is not about how it LOOKS, but what you can or can not do at home while watching TV is impacted.

IPTV has an incredible laundry list of challenges in front of it. Speed, connectivity, content, interface and usability. In the US we don't have the speed due to a non-existent Broadband program in the US. Our speeds are incredibly slow. (We still have people using DIAL UP!). If you have Broadband it could still be on Wireless A or B or G, as there has not been any reason to go to N and N wasn't a solid choice until recently. Wired? Well same issue with all these flat panels sitting on some sort of shelving vs hanging. The power and other connection are not located up on the wall. Cost of that installation is preventing the majority of people placing / moving this on the wall. Same issue exists with Internet. Most people have installed the HARD wire connection of the Internet in the office or loft where the computer is, not where any other Consumer Electronics are. (TV, DVD, and such). Wireless - not fast enough / Wired - to costly to move. New homes help, but as we all know new housing will not rebound for some time, and would only be a SMALL slice of people purchasing new TVs.

LED - Thin TVs - as mentioned above - if you are not hanging it on the wall - WHO CARES?!?!

Feel green, great, get an LED, but similar to the Automotive industry, how much are you willing to pay to be green? Just like the CAR you will NOT save enough in energy to justify the price increase at current markup for LED today.

So what do we see in the market, an overall soft TV market for the majority of the year in the US. We don't have a switch from Analog to HDTV a valid reason to upgrade a TV. We are not moving from HUGE crts or rear projection TVs to FLAT, another significant change the people where willing to spend money for. Now we are moving back into Evolutionary changes vs. Revolutionary changes.

To make all of this worse the industry sets targets (based on sales AND PROFIT) and when they do not look like they will achieve the targets for units and market share they chase the SALES and throw away any PROFIT.

Why continue to develop new product to lose money?!?!?! Bit of a death spiral for most companies trying to survive. If all of these companies had to survive on the Profit or Loss of just the Electronics category alone, I would argue that most would be gone.

We are not developing (for the most part) technology that customers WANT. This is a broad statement and is pointed more at TVs. Companies are struggling to cram another way to make money vs. off the item itself to offset the self inflicted pain of selling cheap when units do not sell up to expectation (IPTV). The industry has put the cart in front of the horse in this attempt, ignoring the fact that the quality / connectability / content are all severely lacking. 3DTV is severely lacking in Content, ignore the concern on glasses, I can't get a decent movie if I wanted to. (Hollywood is still trying to solve the issue with Blu-Ray and why it isn't selling and can't spend time money on 3D movies for the home yet).

Some success in the industry is coming from companies that are taking the time to find ways to bring customers items that make their life more enjoyable and improve the way they do things. Simplifying MUSIC, making it easy to have your entire music collection in your hand. Making it easy to access more content and get that content easily. A company that has taken the PC and put it in a portable format that has a proven interface that people enjoy using. Putting application on a portable device that makes it easy to interact socially and connect with others. Take pictures and send over the cellular network. Take video and send. All through nice devices with touch screens, easy for must of us to understand without ever reading a manual (true sign of a well built device - If you need to put a sign of PUSH or PULL on a door you didn't design it very well).

What would sell more TVs? More Technology? Devices that are EASIER to use, to connect, to share with others. There has been little change or improvement on the way we interact with a TV (remote control).

The biggest issue is we do not properly inform customers of all the great STUFF that is in the technology. Since they can not understand the benefits of what they could buy, they can not apply a VALUE. If I don't know what GOOD something will bring to my life I will not be able to decide how MUCH I am willing to pay for it.

The result - when it is cheap enough - sure I'll buy it. It may have 20 things in it that I won't use, but it's OK because I didn't pay a premium for it. (as some Tier 1 TV vendors have stated recently about the expectation that they will need to drop prices to sell - 3DTV, IPTV, LED)

The industry needs to take a serious look at the vicious cycle we are in that is driving down profit, and ability to take that profit and reinvest in new technology.

JZ

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Why Connected TVs Will Be About the Content, Not the Apps

See below from Jeremy Toeman - Very good point of view on how to have consumers care about Connected TVs.

Right now you have IPTVs selling that almost no one is using.... he points out why they are not using, or not buying below.

JZ




About 3 hours ago Jeremy Toeman 7

Why Connected TVs Will Be About the Content, Not the Apps

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With the recent launches of the revamped Roku and the new Apple TV, Samsung’s connected TVs in stores already, and Google TV and the Boxee Box looming large on the horizon, the connected device space is officially heating up. New Internet TV devices, be they connected TVs, smart set top boxes, digital media streamers, or whatever else, are offering consumers virtually limitless access to content by bringing the best — and of course the worst — the Internet() has to offer straight into the living room.
But beyond just “get more content on your TV,” we’re starting to see a lot of energy focused on “apps on your TV.” Right now, wired TVs and Wi-Fi enabled Blu()-ray players come equipped with everything from YouTube() (cool) to TED Talks (awesome) to Pandora() (sweet) to Twitter() (huh?).
When it comes to video and music apps (entertainment), the value proposition is clear: more content on my TV. But what’s the value of non-entertainment apps? And how can the device makers communicate that value?
Disclosure: The author has worked and/or consulted for many companies in this space, including those mentioned here and their direct competitors. A complete client list is available here.

What’s Wrong With This Picture?



TV App Promo

Take a look at this photo I took at Costco recently. This is how Samsung is selling the Smart TV experience to consumers.
The four apps featured on the box are Twitter, Facebook(), Dailymotion and AccuWeather.com. In order, most mainstream Costco shoppers will see this as: a stream of hashtag-infused sound bites, farm updates from their high school friends, an unfamiliar video site and a weather app that replicates what they already get on the Weather Channel, their smartphones and laptops. This is supposed to make someone want to buy a premium, top-of-the-line TV?
The point of this is not to pick on Samsung; almost every player in the connected TV space is erroneously highlighting apps when they should be highlighting content. Other than Dailymotion, which is at least a video content offering (albeit far from mainstream), what can the others offer? It’s not being communicated in this ad.

Where’s the Value in Twitter on Your TV?


The current industry vision for Twitter on your TV is essentially a direct port of a Twitter client into your living room that adds almost no content to the experience. In this scenario, your television faithfully recreates the Twitter experience for wired couch potatoes. Never mind that people already have Twitter on their phone, iPad, laptop, and already do tweet from the couch. Never mind that tweeting from your TV would likely require a full keyboard –- or worse, some sort of onscreen keypad. Never mind that browsing links to websites optimized for computer and mobile screens is never fun on a television. Replicating Twitter as-is on a connected TV it is not a win for anyone. And yet, this is what all the manufacturers are doing.
Twitter can work on the TV, though, if you think about the content that a Twitter feed inherently presents.
Imagine a TV Twitter “client” that is focused on a visual content delivery experience. Rather than reading or replying to tweets, a content-focused approach to Twitter on your TV would pull out the rich media that people are sharing. What if you could, for example, subscribe to the TED Twitter feed and watch all the videos that it shares automatically on your television? What if the TV Twitter client automatically pulled out the YouTube videos your friends shared on Twitter or the Twitpic() images and automatically put them in an easily browsable gallery? What if it didn’t feel like Twitter at all?
Living room users don’t care about trivial updates and hashtags. They care about media and entertainment (or infotainment). For TV apps to succeed, they need to provide engaging content to the audience. For connected TV apps to resonate with casual users and gain wide adoption, they must recognize that it’s all about content in the end. This, of course, requires more imagination, more innovation and a bit more work. But it can be done, and the future of connected device apps depends on developers enthusiastically marching down this path.

How Connected Device Companies Can Win


Why am I convinced that content is king for the digital home? Because consumers have traditionally paid a premium for more access to media in their living rooms. As TV evolved from three to 500 channels, and later introduced VCRs, DVD players and DVR, it was the access to content, and not the technology itself, that fueled mass adoption. When content providers offer more choices, users are willing to pay more for increased access to new media.
Interactive TV has tried and failed for 20 years because it has always focused on features and functions instead of content. So how can connected devices and media companies push new, app-delivered content?
First, start foregrounding that content. In marketing, benefits beat features, which beat raw specs. By embracing the “Now With Apps!” marketing mantra, consumer electronic companies are highlighting features. They might as well be advertising the shipping weight of their devices or the HD processor inside. The function of smart devices in the digital living room is to entertain people.
Second, everyone from app developers to smart device manufacturers to marketing and ad executives must humanize this new technology. Tell a story. Engage people’s emotions. Draw users in by making technology personal. The average user doesn’t get excited that his or her TV has a Flickr() app. But most people would like to see photos of their friends and family on the TV. Average users can’t easily identify with a Pandora app, but the idea of your TV playing the kind of music you want to hear sounds appealing. There’s probably even a place for showing pictures of cats with funny captions — just don’t call it an app.
Saying the name of the TV app doesn’t sell it. Sure, if you are reading this blog, many of those apps make sense, but for shoppers at Costco, it looks like word salad. The future of the digital home is exciting, to be sure. In order to effectively launch a smart living room, the industry as a whole needs to focus on the experiences people can have with new technology and not rattle off a bullet list of apps.

The Living Room State of Mind


Samsung TV Apps


Electronics companies and entrepreneurs must understand the psychology of the couch. It is the one location where people want to be entertained, often passively. They spend all day in front of phones, e-mail, Twitter and Facebook. When they kick back on the couch, the last thing they want to see is a list of unread e-mails and a loading screen.
That’s why a winning way to make and market connected TV in 2011 is delivering content, not apps.

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Sony TVs not really made by Sony anymore

Sony continue to shift to more outsourcing of it's TV line. Even high end models have now been announced as being outsourced.

Foxconn Electronics has been expected to produce the Sony framless unltra-thin models. Wistron is expected to produce their Google TV that is just in the process of release.

Sony's LCD TV outsourced orders are expected to reach 70-80% of its total shipments in 2011, of which its Taiwan-based manufacture partner Foxconn is expected to receive orders of 15-18 million units, exceeding its fellow Taiwan-based competitor Wistron.

In order to save its TV business and return it to profit, Sony has been selling its overseas LCD TV manufacturing plants, increasing its outsourcing and expanding its lineup of lower-cost models. Amid the increasing market share and sales, Sony has turned profitable and ended the embarrassing situation of six years of losses. Sony is expected to reach its shipment goal of 25 million LCD TVs for the 2010 fiscal year ended March 2011, and the shipments may increase to 26 million units for the year, of which 40-50% will be outsourced.
Sony originally planned to increase its LCD TV shipment goal for 2011 to 40 million units. However, the company has lowered the goal to 36 million units amid weakening demand in the global market. In terms of manufacturing strategy, 20-30% of the total shipments will be in-house designs and the rest will be divided equally between ODM and OEM, of which high-end frameless models will be produced by Foxconn and hit the market in the first half of 2011. This will be the first time for Sony to outsource high-end models to Taiwan-based makers.

Sony indicated that its outsourcing strategy for LCD TVs will remain unchanged and will continue to focus on increasing competitiveness, but the company declined to comment on its orders to an individual manufacturer. Observers in the TV industry noted that Sony will release significant orders to Foxconn as the Taiwan-based maker took over the LCD TV assembly plants in Mexico and Slovakia, making Foxconn the largest manufacturer for Sony with 16-18 million units of orders. Although OEM orders will remain as the majority party of the total orders from Sony, Foxconn's affiliate LCD panel maker Chimei Innolux (CMI) is expected to benefit and supply TV panels for about 40-50% of the total orders.

JZ

Technology American adults own

A recent survey by Pew research center's internet and American Life Project showed the following results.

85% own Cell Phones
59% own Desktop computers
52% own Laptop computers
47% own MP3 player
42% own Video Game system
5% own an Ereader
4% own a tablet computer

Report shows a shift to people accessing the Internet through mobile phone and quickly moving to tablet computers as well.

These are considered 7 key items for the information age. Expectations are that tablet sales will reach 19.5 Million units in 2010. 30-52% of Americans in 2006 owned a PC or Laptop, this is now up to 75% in 2010.

Tablets are expected to take a large share of sales away from Netbooks, mini notebooks, inexpensive laptops.

An opportunity called out with this new wave of mobility and mobile technology is security. Security professionals will have a great opportunity in providing level of control and security, but need to be mindful of not stifling the flexibility and mobility of employees.

Report also allows everyone to determine which lines may have the most upside potential in the short term. It also allows producers of each product category the ability to see the need to move into a replacement cycle or downward trend on categories. Question is which technologies have the ability to stick around and be replaced by more features items, and which technologies are at risk of being replaced all together by new technology (impact tablets will have on laptops).

JZ

Monday, October 18, 2010

Video Game Sales take hit in September

Video Game software sales fell in September 6% down to $614 Million.

Video Game hardware took a larger hit down 19% to $383 Million.

Non-traditional video game spending is up, though this is hard to measure NPD has released its first report.
The move is, in part, defensive. NPD tracks and publishes monthly data on video game store sales, and has taken flak from video game executives for failing to account for new and increasingly popular ways of buying games.

The study marks the first time that NPD has released non-traditional video game sales figures and provides evidence that consumer spending on video games is 40 percent larger than it previously believed.
It estimated that non-traditional sales are at least $2.6 billion and as high as $2.9 billion, NPD said. The figures include used video game sales.

"This is an industry that is going through some pretty serious dramatic changes to its business model," said David McQuillan, NPD's games president. "We have to change along with them to properly reflect the overall trends going on within the market."
Many customers are buying games through downloads or by visiting online social networks to play games offered by companies such as Zynga.
Apple Inc's iPhone has also become a major gaming platform, with users buying games through the App Store.

JZ

Saturday, October 9, 2010

Health Care Fear / Savings drives people to work longer

Two out of Five has said they will work longer , delaying their retirement date. This is due to a fear of Health Care costs and savings shortfalls.

They survey of over 9,000 people also showed that 40% planned to retire later than they did 2 years ago. Most responded that they will work at least another 3 years longer than they had planned.

Another point shown in the survey was that  almost twice as many workers are paying off debt than they were last year, and that almost twice as many are reviewing how much they need to save for retirement.

Half of all respondents cut their daily spending, while six in 10 over-50s delaying retirement cited poorly performing 401(k)s as a factor.

The economic downturn means more than half of all workers are willing to accept larger paycheck deductions in return for guaranteed retirement benefits, the survey found.

JZ

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

HELL'S KITCHEN - Promo WED 10/6!

Holiday Shopping Shocker!

Here is shocking news released based on a Holiday Spending Survey from Accenture.

Customer are looking for DEEP DISCOUNTS - WOW!

Again - not about Brand, Features, Quality, and so on - but it is PRICE!

The reports says 83% intend to spend the same or less this holiday season. Discounts will be a big motivator to spend. 87% reported they would not buy with at least a 20% discount on the item. 25% of the people reported it would take at least a 50% discount to get them to buy.

With retailers being very conservative with their discounting and managing inventory instead, this could be a very slow season. Consumer continue to save, and stores continue to hold back discounting.

Even though consumer are stating the must have large discounts to buy, the number of people stating they will NOT shop on black Friday has gone up 5% over last year.

For those shopping on line - FREE SHIPPING is the big motivator. 43% , 8% more than last year stated they are looking for that specific offer.

Depending on how it turns out, it could be a last-minute season for those strong enough to hold out. If inventory at retail is under control , holding out won't matter.

JZ

3D TV no glasses?!

Toshiba has announced launching a 3D TV that doesn't require any glasses. Great for everyone who has said they don't want to sit around for long periods of time with glasses on. Those that have said they can't multi task with glasses on.

Not so fast!

First - just like OLED screens - they are VERY expensive 12 inch TV for $1,440 and 20" for $2,880. The 20" is more expensive than a 40" 3D TV with glasses from Sony which is around $2,500 including the cost for glasses.

Second - they have not been successful in making a set larger than 20" that is consumer ready.

Third - current models 12" and 20" suffer from a loss of 50% of the resolution when producing this 3D image. Ouch!


On the positive side the sets have the capability of converting any 2D content to 3D content addressing the issue of what is not currently available in 3D which is a lot.

Toshiba has shown a 56" version at CEATEC - but there is no information about timing or price. Based on current information on the models being made available it is a long way away from release.


Some of these issues is why SED tv has never been produced for consumers although it significantly outperforms LCD tvs. OLED may go the same way, they are struggling to get the costs down and struggling to produce TVs over 32". Sony's 12" OLED TV was $2,500.

Time will tell - but for those that jump at new announcements, I wouldn't be so sure that 3DTV without glasses is really coming to your living room anytime soon.

JZ

Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Halloween Spending

Reports are in and consumers have said the will spend some more this year on Halloween.

Average consumer expects to spend $66.28.

Age group that is most enthusiastic about the holiday are the ones between 18-24 years old.

About $67 dollars toward that holiday party they are planning to attend.

Have a safe holiday!

JZ

Monday, October 4, 2010

The Amanda Smithe Show episode 6

My daughers most recent creation

Microsoft 360 Kinect Update!

Some new information about the Kinect has been released by Microsoft.

Kinect will not have it's own internal processor. Also Kinect has a lower resolution camera and will track less body parts. These are both different from the models that were shown at E3 this year.

Kinect will use less than 1% of the X-box 360s processing power. They have stated it was hard to understand how much power it would need, but as game development progress the changes could be made.

Top graphic capability was the concern and the design is in line with that desire to bring the best experience to the gamer. Forza is a graphic showpiece and will shipping with Kinect and is still running at 60 frames per second without the Kinect having its own internal processor, as one example provided by Microsoft.

In regards to the number of points needed to be picked up by the Kinect, that was also adjusted with the development phase. The idea is to use all of the processing power most efficiently and effectively, and they say they have done so with these adjustments.

Personally it is a wait and see at this point. I was able to attend E3 and try the Kinect, but that experience is now up in the air. Until I try what basically is a rather overhauled device I won't know if the experience will be as enjoyable as it was at E3. That being said, I am going to pick it up and plan to use it extensively with the family.

Will update as more information is released!

JZ

Friday, October 1, 2010

America Research and Development issue

Is America losing it's Science Brainpower? US has always considered one of it's competitive advantages as the human scientist asset.

A report discussed on Capitol Hill has said that our ability to complete globally in science and technology is going down a very dangerous path.

Overall student performance in Math and Science is very poor in comparison to our counterparts in other countries. Other countries such as China are investing heavily in research and educations, which can be viewed as a future threat to American competitiveness. Though today America is still the leader in innovation and produces a large majority of the world's wealth.

JOBS - as I have mentioned in previous posts about the American Economy, holding on and growing American Brainpower promotes new JOBS and JOB GROWTH.

The health of the economy and job growth is directly tied to our ability to innovate.

New scientific discoveries drive new jobs - an example mentioned would be the research in solid-state physics which resulted in material used in GPS, Ipods, and medical scanners. Jobs where created to support the production and expansion of those products.

Over the past 5 years, people tracking this issue have said the matter has only gotten worse.Only 4 of the top 10 companies receiving US patents in 2009 were American companies.

"China graduated more English-speaking engineers last year than we did," said Rep. Frank Wolf,  R-Va. "The United States' share of high-tech exports has fallen from 21 to 14 percent, while China's rose from 7 to 20 percent."

The focus needs to be on Education. New progress needs to be made with research funding. Will our government take the steps necessary to keep us competitive?

JZ

HP Hires Ex-SAP to CEO

I have to say I continue to be a bit surprised at the number of corporations that simply can not find or refuse to chose a candidate from within. I would not be surprised if one or more additional senior leaders at HP will look elsewhere as they have been passed over with this move.

HP named former SAP AG executive Leo Apotheker as the head guy now running the ship. It appears as HP is looking to strengthen its software sector with the latest move. HP has been a smaller player in this area over the past years. The rivalry with Oracle is expected to continue to grow as HP tries to be more meaningful in the software sector.

Leo Apotheker had been with the software maker SAP for more than 20 years. He had been known for raising the rate that SAP charged for product support during a bad economy. SAP later reduced those moves after customers threatened to walk away amid the higher fees.

Leo Apotheker plans to move to Palto Alto, CA for the new job. He is fluent in 5 languages and has never lived in the US full time prior to this.

HP moved quickly and now can hopefully put the CEO issue behind them. Leo Apotheker has some big shoes to fill and a large responsibility to keep driving HP as worlds largest IT company by revenue.

JZ